Opinions

Experimenting with group-based belief aggregation in probability markets

A team-built PoC on functionSPACE that lets users form guilds, express individual beliefs, and merge them into a single team distribution — and why teaming fits a distribution-market protocol.

The oracle should be a market

The core contradiction in permissionless prediction markets — decentralised trade, centralised settlement — only resolves when the oracle itself becomes a market, where disagreement becomes price discovery.

The predictoors guide to making better forecasts

Forecasting research from Tetlock & Gardner's "Superforecasting" applied to modern markets. "I am not an expert, just a mere vassal passing this along to whoever finds it useful."