A consumer interface for prediction markets. Say it in plain English — "AGI by 2030 with some spread" — and Calibrated turns it into a probability curve, then shows you exactly where you land versus the experts.
Most platforms ask a binary question — yes or no, like Polymarket or Kalshi. Calibrated lets users express a belief in natural language and turns it into a full probability curve, calibrated to each market's range and units. "AGI by 2030 with some spread" becomes a distribution, not a coin flip.
The differentiator is the pundit overlay. Calibrated tracks verified public predictions from notable forecasters and runs their actual quoted words through the same parser as the user's input — so pundit curves and your curve sit on one chart, generated by identical math. You see exactly where your belief lands versus the experts on the same topic.
Each forecaster is scored on calibration accuracy — how precisely the actual outcome landed on their predicted peak. The math rewards precision over direction, producing rankings that don't always match reputation. Verified forecasters tracked include Cathie Wood, Arthur Hayes, Jensen Huang, Jason Furman, and Peter Schiff, among others.
Calibrated wires three live functionSPACE markets — AGI (240), BTC (242), and Fed (243) — using the functionSPACE SDK for belief generation and previews. A natural-language parser maps both user input and verified pundit quotes onto the same belief-vector math, and a calibration scorer ranks forecasters by precision.
Calibrated leans directly into what makes functionSPACE different: positions are distributions, so a belief can be a curve rather than a yes/no. By accepting plain English and rendering it as a calibrated curve, it lowers the barrier to expressing a nuanced view to near zero.
The pundit overlay turns the protocol into a measurement instrument — putting expert claims and user beliefs on identical math, then scoring who was actually calibrated. That's a consumer hook and an accountability layer at once, with a roadmap to ingest new predictions from X, YouTube, and news as they're made.
Calibrated placed third in the functionSPACE Builder Competition, judged by a panel of nine across the team and community. Watch the announcement from functionSPACE:
Built by @danize14 for the functionSPACE Builder Competition. Pundit curves are generated from verified public quotes for comparison — exploratory, not financial advice.