Opinions
Notes, perspectives, and working thoughts on the state of information markets and the ideas shaping them.
Beyond the Odds: What Prediction Markets Miss
Belief is a shape. A sample of 622 negRisk bracket events on Polymarket shows that fewer than half price a coherent probability distribution. Continuous markets change the unit of trade.
Experimenting with group-based belief aggregation in probability markets
A team-built PoC on functionSPACE that lets users form guilds, express individual beliefs, and merge them into a single team distribution — and why teaming fits a distribution-market protocol.
The oracle should be a market
The core contradiction in permissionless prediction markets — decentralised trade, centralised settlement — only resolves when the oracle itself becomes a market, where disagreement becomes price discovery.
The predictoors guide to making better forecasts
Forecasting research from Tetlock & Gardner's "Superforecasting" applied to modern markets. "I am not an expert, just a mere vassal passing this along to whoever finds it useful."